:Product: 0209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Feb 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
08/2145Z from Region 2939 (S17W44). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Feb,
11 Feb, 12 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 504 km/s at 09/1233Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
09/2048Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
09/2038Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 10188 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (10 Feb), unsettled
to active levels on day two (11 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (12 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
Class M    15/15/10
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Feb 126
Predicted   10 Feb-12 Feb 120/118/110
90 Day Mean        09 Feb 102

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb  007/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb  018/025-016/020-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/45/20
Minor Storm           35/20/05
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    75/60/25