:Product: 0210RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Feb 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 41 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
10/0438Z from Region 2941 (N24W15). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Feb,
12 Feb, 13 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 452 km/s at 10/1429Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 10/1516Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 10/1503Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 7543 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (11 Feb), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (12 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels
on day three (13 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
Class M    15/10/10
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Feb 118
Predicted   11 Feb-13 Feb 118/116/112
90 Day Mean        10 Feb 102

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb  016/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb  016/020-010/012-017/022

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/20/40
Minor Storm           20/05/25
Major-severe storm    05/01/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/05
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    60/25/70