:Product: 0211RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Feb 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
11/1742Z from Region 2940 (N17W82). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Feb,
13 Feb, 14 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 499 km/s at 11/2047Z. Total IMF
reached 21 nT at 11/1736Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-16 nT at 11/1755Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 6612 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (12 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (13 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (14 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Feb 113
Predicted   12 Feb-14 Feb 110/108/108
90 Day Mean        11 Feb 102

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  012/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  013/015-007/010-020/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/35
Minor Storm           25/10/30
Major-severe storm    05/01/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/05
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    60/40/65