:Product: 0212RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Feb 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
12/0844Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Feb,
14 Feb, 15 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 600 km/s at 12/0459Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 11/2136Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
11/2138Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 428 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Feb), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (14 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (15 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Feb 111
Predicted   13 Feb-15 Feb 108/108/105
90 Day Mean        12 Feb 103

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb  012/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb  010/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb  010/012-009/010-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    40/30/15