:Product: 0214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Feb 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
14/1731Z from Region 2941 (N23W68). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Feb,
16 Feb, 17 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s at 14/0903Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 14/0509Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
14/0013Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 5483 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (15 Feb, 16 Feb, 17
Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
Class M    20/20/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Feb 107
Predicted   15 Feb-17 Feb 105/105/100
90 Day Mean        14 Feb 103

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/15