:Product: 0216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Feb 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Feb,
18 Feb, 19 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 414 km/s at 15/2300Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
16/1608Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
16/1846Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 9022 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (17 Feb, 18 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on day three (19 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M    15/15/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Feb 103
Predicted   17 Feb-19 Feb 105/105/108
90 Day Mean        16 Feb 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb  006/005-006/005-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/40
Minor Storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    15/15/55