:Product: 0220RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Feb 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 51 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
20/0407Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Feb,
22 Feb, 23 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 555 km/s at 20/1651Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 20/0058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 20/0114Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 157 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Feb) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Feb 093
Predicted   21 Feb-23 Feb 096/102/102
90 Day Mean        20 Feb 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb  012/012-009/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/15
Minor Storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    50/35/25