:Product: 0223RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Feb 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 54 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Feb, 25 Feb, 26 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 536 km/s at 23/0708Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
23/0544Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
23/0509Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 451 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (24 Feb, 25 Feb) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (26 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Feb 096
Predicted   24 Feb-26 Feb 100/105/105
90 Day Mean        23 Feb 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb  013/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb  006/005-005/005-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/20