:Product: 0228RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Feb 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
28/0917Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Mar,
02 Mar, 03 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 554 km/s at 28/1728Z. Total IMF reached 52
nT at 28/0356Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -30 nT at
28/0356Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 158 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Feb 099
Predicted   01 Mar-03 Mar 102/105/105
90 Day Mean        28 Feb 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb  011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar  011/012-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/25/25