:Product: 0302RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Mar 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
02/1739Z from Region 2958 (N20E24). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Mar, 04 Mar,
05 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 525 km/s at 01/2210Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 190 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (03 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (04 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (05 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Mar 110
Predicted   03 Mar-05 Mar 115/115/110
90 Day Mean        02 Mar 106

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar  005/005-007/008-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/30
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/25/40