:Product: 0303RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Mar 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 62 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
02/2324Z from Region 2960 (S21E81). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Mar,
05 Mar, 06 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 440 km/s at 02/2100Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
03/1909Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
03/1941Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 417 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Mar) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Mar 111
Predicted   04 Mar-06 Mar 111/110/108
90 Day Mean        03 Mar 106

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar  007/008-011/012-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/30
Minor Storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/40/40