:Product: 0309RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Mar 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 68 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
08/2227Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 506 km/s at 09/1338Z.  Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5129 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (10 Mar, 11 Mar) and
quiet levels on day three (12 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Mar 115
Predicted   10 Mar-12 Mar 115/114/112
90 Day Mean        09 Mar 108

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar  009/012-011/012-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/10
Minor Storm           10/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    40/40/15