:Product: 0310RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Mar 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 69 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Mar,
12 Mar, 13 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 400 km/s at 10/1935Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 10/2032Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
10/1901Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 8967 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Mar) and quiet levels on
days two and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Mar 127
Predicted   11 Mar-13 Mar 120/120/115
90 Day Mean        10 Mar 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar  011/012-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/10/10
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    40/15/15