:Product: 0313RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Mar 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
13/0323Z from Region 2962 (N27W49). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Mar, 15 Mar,
16 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 580 km/s at 13/1047Z. Total IMF
reached 25 nT at 13/1708Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-18 nT at 13/1636Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 583 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (14 Mar), unsettled
to minor storm levels on day two (15 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels
on day three (16 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Mar 123
Predicted   14 Mar-16 Mar 120/120/115
90 Day Mean        13 Mar 110

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar  007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar  020/034
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar  020/030-015/020-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/20
Minor Storm           35/30/05
Major-severe storm    25/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/20
Minor Storm           15/20/30
Major-severe storm    80/65/25