:Product: 0315RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Mar 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 74 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
15/1239Z from Region 2965 (N24W17). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Mar,
17 Mar, 18 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 446 km/s at 15/0640Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at
14/2109Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
15/1522Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 234 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Mar 110
Predicted   16 Mar-18 Mar 110/108/108
90 Day Mean        15 Mar 111

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar  013/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar  005/005-006/008-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/30
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/35/40