:Product: 0318RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Mar 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 77 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (19 Mar, 20 Mar, 21 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 325 km/s at 18/0119Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
18/0530Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
17/2345Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 287 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Mar) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Mar 098
Predicted   19 Mar-21 Mar 098/098/095
90 Day Mean        18 Mar 110

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar  008/008-013/015-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/30
Minor Storm           05/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    25/50/40