:Product: 0319RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Mar 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 78 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
19/0413Z from Region 2965 (N26W68). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one and two (20 Mar, 21 Mar) and expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (22 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 333 km/s at 19/2043Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
19/1528Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
19/2046Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 326 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 Mar, 21 Mar) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
Class M    10/10/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Mar 094
Predicted   20 Mar-22 Mar 095/095/092
90 Day Mean        19 Mar 110

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar  013/015-011/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/15
Minor Storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    50/40/25