:Product: 0320RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Mar 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
20/0745Z from Region 2971 (N16E03). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (21 Mar) and expected to be very low with a slight
chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (22 Mar, 23 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 322 km/s at 20/0148Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 20/1720Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
20/0317Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 168 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (22 Mar, 23 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
Class M    10/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Mar 095
Predicted   21 Mar-23 Mar 095/095/095
90 Day Mean        20 Mar 110

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar  011/012-008/008-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/25/25