:Product: 0321RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Mar 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 80 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (22
Mar, 23 Mar, 24 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 340 km/s at 21/1911Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 21/1900Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
20/2112Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5 pfu at 21/0945Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Mar) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (23 Mar, 24 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Mar 098
Predicted   22 Mar-24 Mar 100/100/105
90 Day Mean        21 Mar 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar  011/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar  008/008-010/012-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/30
Minor Storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    25/40/40