:Product: 0322RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Mar 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 81 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
22/1242Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Mar,
24 Mar, 25 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 450 km/s at 22/1258Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 22/1950Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
21/2316Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 325 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (23 Mar, 24 Mar) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Mar 106
Predicted   23 Mar-25 Mar 100/105/105
90 Day Mean        22 Mar 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar  010/012-013/015-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor Storm           10/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/40/30