:Product: 0323RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Mar 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 82 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
23/1357Z from Region 2974 (S18E54). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Mar,
25 Mar, 26 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 438 km/s at 23/0910Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
22/2205Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
23/0535Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 166 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 Mar), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (25 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (26 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Mar 106
Predicted   24 Mar-26 Mar 105/105/110
90 Day Mean        23 Mar 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar  013/015-007/010-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/15
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    50/30/20