:Product: 0324RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Mar 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 83 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
24/0145Z from Region 2975 (N14E55). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Mar,
26 Mar, 27 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 597 km/s at 24/0817Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 23/2318Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
23/2331Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 113 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (25 Mar,
26 Mar, 27 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Mar 112
Predicted   25 Mar-27 Mar 112/112/112
90 Day Mean        24 Mar 108

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar  007/010-011/012-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/20
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/40/30