:Product: 0327RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Mar 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 86 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
27/1109Z from Region 2978 (S15E75). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Mar,
29 Mar, 30 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 553 km/s at 27/1028Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 27/0641Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
27/0723Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 117 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (28 Mar), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (29 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (30
Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Mar 130
Predicted   28 Mar-30 Mar 129/129/129
90 Day Mean        27 Mar 108

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar  014/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar  013/015-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/15/15
Minor Storm           25/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    60/25/20