:Product: 0328RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Mar 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 87 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
28/1129Z from Region 2975 (N13W12). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (29 Mar) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 566 km/s at 28/1016Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 27/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
27/2106Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 18 pfu at 28/1450Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 362 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (29 Mar, 30 Mar)
and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (31 Mar). Protons are
expected to cross threshold on day one (29 Mar) and have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on days two and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
Class M    35/30/30
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     99/15/15
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Mar 156
Predicted   29 Mar-31 Mar 150/150/145
90 Day Mean        28 Mar 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar  015/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Mar  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar  008/008-007/008-023/032

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/25
Minor Storm           05/05/35
Major-severe storm    01/01/20
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/05
Minor Storm           25/30/20
Major-severe storm    25/30/70