:Product: 0329RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Mar 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 88 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
29/0111Z from Region 2975 (N13W25). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (30 Mar) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (31 Mar, 01 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 445 km/s at 28/2201Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
29/0815Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
29/1550Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 10 pfu at 28/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 570 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (30 Mar), active to
severe storm levels on day two (31 Mar) and unsettled to major storm
levels on day three (01 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day one (30 Mar), have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day two (31 Mar) and have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day three (01 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
Class M    50/35/35
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     20/15/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Mar 149
Predicted   30 Mar-01 Apr 150/150/150
90 Day Mean        29 Mar 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Mar  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr  011/014-032/056-025/032

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/25
Minor Storm           30/20/35
Major-severe storm    15/45/25
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    70/80/70