:Product: 0330RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Mar 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 89 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
30/1737Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (31 Mar, 01 Apr, 02 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 425 km/s at 30/0223Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
30/2037Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
30/2041Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 29/2155Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 243 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (31 Mar), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (01 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (02 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day one (31 Mar) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days two and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
Class M    50/35/35
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     20/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Mar 151
Predicted   31 Mar-02 Apr 150/150/145
90 Day Mean        30 Mar 110

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar  009/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr  032/058-025/032-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/20
Minor Storm           20/35/05
Major-severe storm    45/25/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    80/70/30