:Product: 0331RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Mar 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 90 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
31/1835Z from Region 2975 (N13W52). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr, 03 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 629 km/s at 31/1148Z. Total IMF
reached 22 nT at 31/2045Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 31/0522Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 10 pfu at 31/0630Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 158 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (01 Apr), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (02 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day
three (03 Apr). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (01
Apr) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and
three (02 Apr, 03 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     65/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Mar 149
Predicted   01 Apr-03 Apr 150/145/130
90 Day Mean        31 Mar 110

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar  024/043
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr  025/032-008/010-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/45
Minor Storm           35/05/20
Major-severe storm    25/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/10
Minor Storm           20/25/35
Major-severe storm    70/30/55