:Product: 0401RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Apr 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 91 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
01/0234Z from Region 2981 (S26E18). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (02 Apr, 03 Apr)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (04
Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 01/1436Z. Total IMF reached 22
nT at 31/2241Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
01/0934Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3 pfu at 31/2200Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 156 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (02 Apr, 03 Apr) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Apr). Protons have a chance
of crossing threshold on days one and two (02 Apr, 03 Apr) and have a
chance of crossing threshold on day three (04 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
Class M    75/75/35
Class X    30/30/05
Proton     50/50/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Apr 147
Predicted   02 Apr-04 Apr 145/130/115
90 Day Mean        01 Apr 111

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar  018/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr  016/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr  011/012-011/015-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/45/30
Minor Storm           10/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           30/35/25
Major-severe storm    40/55/40