:Product: 0404RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Apr 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 94 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
04/1017Z from Region 2984 (N12W97). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05
Apr, 06 Apr, 07 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 04/0413Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 03/2259Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
03/2240Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 03/2125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3916 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Apr) and quiet to
minor storm levels on days two and three (06 Apr, 07 Apr). Protons
greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day
three (07 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Apr 128
Predicted   05 Apr-07 Apr 125/125/125
90 Day Mean        04 Apr 112

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr  008/008-014/020-019/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/40/35
Minor Storm           05/25/30
Major-severe storm    01/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/05
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/65/65