:Product: 0405RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Apr 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 95 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
05/0758Z from Region 2978 (S17W37). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Apr,
07 Apr, 08 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 483 km/s at 05/0645Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
05/1114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
05/0638Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2903 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (06 Apr, 07
Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Apr 122
Predicted   06 Apr-08 Apr 124/122/120
90 Day Mean        05 Apr 113

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  014/020-019/025-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/30
Minor Storm           25/30/10
Major-severe storm    05/15/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    65/70/40