:Product: 0406RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Apr 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 96 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
06/1023Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (07 Apr, 08 Apr)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day
three (09 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 438 km/s at 06/0040Z.  Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3827 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (07 Apr) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (08 Apr, 09 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
Class M    10/10/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Apr 117
Predicted   07 Apr-09 Apr 116/115/112
90 Day Mean        06 Apr 113

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr  014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr  019/025-009/012-010/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/40
Minor Storm           30/15/20
Major-severe storm    15/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/10
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    70/40/55