:Product: 0412RSGA.txt :Issued: 2022 Apr 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2022 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 12/0649Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (13 Apr, 14 Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (15 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 522 km/s at 12/1515Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 12/1204Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 12/1132Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1643 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Apr), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (14 Apr) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (15 Apr). III. Event probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr Class M 01/01/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Apr 096 Predicted 13 Apr-15 Apr 098/098/102 90 Day Mean 12 Apr 113 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr 013/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Apr 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr 012/012-023/035-015/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/25/35 Minor Storm 15/40/30 Major-severe storm 01/25/15 B. High Latitudes Active 10/05/05 Minor Storm 25/15/20 Major-severe storm 50/79/70