:Product: 0413RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Apr 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (14 Apr) and
expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two
and three (15 Apr, 16 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 519 km/s at 13/0202Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 13/0938Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
13/0646Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1415 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (14 Apr), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (15 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day
three (16 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
Class M    01/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Apr 099
Predicted   14 Apr-16 Apr 100/103/105
90 Day Mean        13 Apr 113

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr  011/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr  023/035-015/020-012/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/30
Minor Storm           40/30/10
Major-severe storm    25/15/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor Storm           15/20/25
Major-severe storm    79/70/40