:Product: 0414RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Apr 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (15 Apr) and
expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two
and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 575 km/s at 14/1310Z. Total IMF
reached 21 nT at 14/2051Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 14/1643Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 771 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (15 Apr), quiet to
active levels on day two (16 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (17 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
Class M    01/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Apr 103
Predicted   15 Apr-17 Apr 105/110/115
90 Day Mean        14 Apr 113

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr  029/044
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr  016/022-013/015-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/25
Minor Storm           30/20/05
Major-severe storm    15/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    70/50/30