:Product: 0415RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Apr 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
15/1359Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Apr, 17 Apr, 18 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 596 km/s at 15/1550Z. Total IMF
reached 21 nT at 14/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 15/0007Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 641 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (16 Apr, 18 Apr)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (17 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Apr 110
Predicted   16 Apr-18 Apr 110/115/115
90 Day Mean        15 Apr 113

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr  022/034
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr  020/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr  012/015-010/010-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/30
Minor Storm           20/05/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    50/30/40