:Product: 0416RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Apr 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
16/1456Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate on
days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 654 km/s at 16/0017Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 16/0158Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 0 nT at
15/2233Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1233 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (17 Apr, 18 Apr) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Apr 122
Predicted   17 Apr-19 Apr 125/125/125
90 Day Mean        16 Apr 113

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr  014/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr  011/012-011/012-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    40/40/30