:Product: 0422RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Apr 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
22/1325Z from Region 2993 (N19W04). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Apr, 24
Apr, 25 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 508 km/s at 22/1439Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 21/2202Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/0812Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 345 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Apr, 25 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Apr 163
Predicted   23 Apr-25 Apr 160/160/160
90 Day Mean        22 Apr 116

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  010/012-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/30/30