:Product: 0423RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Apr 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
23/1942Z from Region 2994 (N14W12). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (24 Apr, 25 Apr, 26 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 23/1422Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 23/0820Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
23/0924Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 533 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24 Apr, 25 Apr)
and quiet levels on day three (26 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Apr 160
Predicted   24 Apr-26 Apr 160/160/160
90 Day Mean        23 Apr 117

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Apr  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Apr  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr  008/008-009/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    30/25/20