:Product: 0427RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Apr 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 117 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Apr 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
27/1454Z from Region 2996 (N25W25). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (28 Apr, 29 Apr) and
likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three
(30 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 515 km/s at 27/1427Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 27/1300Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 27/1209Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 771 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (28 Apr, 30 Apr)
and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (29 Apr). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and
two (28 Apr, 29 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Apr-30 Apr
Class M    25/25/15
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Apr 142
Predicted   28 Apr-30 Apr 140/125/110
90 Day Mean        27 Apr 119

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Apr  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Apr  014/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr  007/008-013/018-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Apr-30 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/30
Minor Storm           05/25/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    35/60/40