:Product: 0428RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Apr 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 118 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Apr 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
28/0306Z from Region 2996 (N25W39). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (29 Apr, 30 Apr) and
likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three
(01 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 551 km/s at 28/1913Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 28/0658Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 28/0620Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 405 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (29 Apr), quiet to
active levels on day two (30 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (01 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (29 Apr, 30 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Apr-01 May
Class M    25/25/15
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Apr 132
Predicted   29 Apr-01 May 125/115/110
90 Day Mean        28 Apr 119

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Apr  016/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Apr  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Apr-01 May  014/018-010/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Apr-01 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor Storm           25/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/40/25