:Product: 0430RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Apr 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
30/1347Z from Region 2994 (N15, L=106) beyond the west limb. There are
currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (01 May) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an
M-class flare on day two (02 May) and likely to be low on day three (03
May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 540 km/s at 30/1621Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 30/0019Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 30/0023Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 29/2145Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1061 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 May, 02 May) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 May). Protons greater than 10
Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (01
May, 02 May).

III.  Event probabilities 01 May-03 May
Class M    35/15/01
Class X    15/01/01
Proton     10/10/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Apr 120
Predicted   01 May-03 May 110/105/105
90 Day Mean        30 Apr 119

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr  010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr  015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May  012/015-012/015-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/10
Minor Storm           15/15/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    45/45/20