:Product: 0502RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 May 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
02/1920Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 May,
04 May, 05 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 561 km/s at 01/2212Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 01/2309Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
02/0007Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1538 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (03 May, 04 May, 05
May).

III.  Event probabilities 03 May-05 May
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 May 112
Predicted   03 May-05 May 115/115/113
90 Day Mean        02 May 119

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May  006/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10