:Product: 0504RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 May 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
04/0859Z from Region 3004 (S16W17). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 May, 06
May, 07 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 427 km/s at 03/2208Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1467 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (05 May, 06 May, 07
May).

III.  Event probabilities 05 May-07 May
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 May 130
Predicted   05 May-07 May 135/138/145
90 Day Mean        04 May 119

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May  006/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10