:Product: 0508RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 May 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
08/1938Z from Region 3007 (S23E64). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 May, 10 May,
11 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 367 km/s at 08/1131Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
08/0855Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
08/2034Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1097 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (09 May) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (10 May, 11 May).

III.  Event probabilities 09 May-11 May
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 May 119
Predicted   09 May-11 May 118/116/118
90 Day Mean        08 May 118

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May  005/005-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/25
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/30/30