:Product: 0511RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 May 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
11/1858Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (12 May) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance
for an X-class flare on days two and three (13 May, 14 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 322 km/s at 11/1414Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
11/1558Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
11/1912Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 163 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (12 May,
13 May, 14 May).

III.  Event probabilities 12 May-14 May
Class M    55/50/50
Class X    20/15/15
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 May 133
Predicted   12 May-14 May 124/124/126
90 Day Mean        11 May 118

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 May  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May  005/006-008/008-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May-14 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    25/30/40