:Product: 0512RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 May 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
12/2019Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (13 May, 14 May, 15 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 353 km/s at 12/2047Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
12/1314Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
11/2114Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5 pfu at 12/0405Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 113 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (13 May,
14 May, 15 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (13 May) and have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day two (14 May).

III.  Event probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 May 133
Predicted   13 May-15 May 135/135/135
90 Day Mean        12 May 119

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May  008/008-010/012-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor Storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/40/40