:Product: 0514RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 May 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
14/2016Z from Region 3010 (S15E48). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (15 May, 16 May, 17 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 421 km/s at 14/2100Z. Total IMF reached 20
nT at 14/1844Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
13/2127Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 167 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (15 May, 17
May) and unsettled to active levels on day two (16 May).

III.  Event probabilities 15 May-17 May
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 May 153
Predicted   15 May-17 May 154/150/148
90 Day Mean        14 May 120

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May  009/012-013/014-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/20
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/45/25