:Product: 0516RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 May 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
16/1327Z from Region 3017 (N14E66). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (17 May, 18 May, 19 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 587 km/s at 16/1505Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 16/1209Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
16/0902Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (17 May, 19
May) and quiet levels on day two (18 May).

III.  Event probabilities 17 May-19 May
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 May 162
Predicted   17 May-19 May 162/160/160
90 Day Mean        16 May 121

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May  008/008-005/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May-19 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/25
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           30/20/30
Major-severe storm    25/20/30