:Product: 0519RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 May 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
19/0719Z from Region 3017 (N13E27). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (20 May, 21 May, 22 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 563 km/s at 19/1719Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 19/1319Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
19/1943Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 201 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 May) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (21 May, 22 May).

III.  Event probabilities 20 May-22 May
Class M    40/35/30
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 May 173
Predicted   20 May-22 May 172/170/170
90 Day Mean        19 May 123

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May  010/012-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May-22 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/30/25