:Product: 0520RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 May 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
20/0745Z from Region 3014 (N24W09). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 May, 22 May,
23 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 608 km/s at 20/1541Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 20/1845Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
20/1540Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 225 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (21 May, 22 May)
and quiet levels on day three (23 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (22 May, 23
May).

III.  Event probabilities 21 May-23 May
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 May 166
Predicted   21 May-23 May 160/162/165
90 Day Mean        20 May 124

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 May  010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 May  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May  007/010-007/010-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May-23 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    30/30/20